Perception and misperception in international politics / Robert Jervis ; with a new preface by the author.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Machine generated contents note: pt. I The Setting -- ch. One Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem -- Do Perceptions Matter? -- The International Environment -- Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? -- Domestic Determinants -- The Bureaucracy -- Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model -- ch. Two External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions -- Introduction -- External versus Internal Sources of Behavior -- Intentions -- Inaccurate Predictions about One's Own Behavior -- ch. Three Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary -- Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War -- Deterrence -- The Spiral Model -- Psychological Dynamics -- Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems with Incrementalism -- Self-Defeating Power -- Prescriptions -- Universal Generalizations? -- Evidence against the Spiral Model -- Evidence against Deterrence -- Deterrence and World War II; Spiral Model and World War I --

Note continued: When Will Force and Threats Work? The Decision-Maker's Choice -- When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses -- Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of What Is at Stake -- Other Explanations for the Differences between the Spiral and Deterrence Theories -- Differences in Values -- Claims for a Dominant Strategy -- Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an Aggressive Adversary -- Suggestions -- pt. II Processes of Perception -- ch. Four Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction between Theory and Data -- Consistency: Rational and Irrational -- Rational Consistency -- Cognitive-Affective Balance -- Source-Message Interaction -- Implications -- Irrational Consistency-Avoidance of Value Trade-Offs -- Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs -- The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions -- The Necessary Interdependence of Facts and Theories -- The Interdependence between Facts and Theories in Science -- The Impact of Categorization --

Note continued: Different Theories, Different Perceptions -- The Emergence of New Theories and Images -- Cognitive Distortion and Implications for Decision-Making -- Failure to Recognize the Influence of Pre-Existing Beliefs -- Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure -- Implications for Decision-Making -- Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity -- Implications for Decision-Making -- ch. Five The Impact of the Evoked Set -- Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication -- Communication and Estimating the Evoked Set of the Other -- Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags -- Uneven Distribution of Information within Governments -- Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences in Concerns -- Conclusions -- ch. Six How Decision-Makers Learn from History -- Introduction -- Lessons as Predispositions -- Alternative Explanations -- The Learning Process -- Organizational Learning -- Events from Which People Learn Most --

Note continued: Firsthand Experiences -- Some Consequences -- Alternative Explanations -- Early Experiences and Generational Effects -- Generational Effects -- Alternative Explanations -- Delayed Impact on Policy -- Events Important to the Person's State or Organization -- Revolutions -- The Last War -- Range of Available Alternative Analogies -- What Lessons Do People Learn? -- Impact of Constant Factors -- Lessons about Specific Actors -- Reactions to Failure -- Nothing Fails like Success -- Alternative Explanations -- Summary -- Appendix: The Impact of Domestic Politics and Training on Perceptual Predispositions -- Learning from Domestic Politics -- Training -- ch. Seven Attitude Change -- Introduction -- Mechanisms of Attitude Preservation and Change -- Centrality -- The Rate at Which Discrepant Information Is Received -- Beliefs Especially Resistant to Discrepant Information -- pt. III Common Misperceptions -- ch. Eight Perceptions of Centralization --

Note continued: Unity and Planning -- Plans, Not Accidents and Confusion -- One Actor, Not Several -- Special Cases -- Variables Encouraging the Perception of Unity and Planning -- Being Misinformed about One's Own Behavior -- Misinformation about Physical Effects -- Disobedience by Agents -- Causes of Disobedience -- Types of Disobedience -- Consequences of Lack of Awareness of Agents' Behavior -- Consequences of Perceptions of Unity and Planning -- ch. Nine Overestimating One's Importance as Influence or Target -- Introduction -- Overestimating One's Effectiveness -- Perceptions of Influence and Turning Points -- Injury and Perceptions of the Other's Autonomy -- Belief that the Other Understands that You Are Not a Threat -- ch. Ten The Influence of Desires and Fears on Perceptions -- Wishful Thinking -- Experiments: Lack of Incentives for Accuracy -- Desires or Expectations? -- Direct Impact of Affect -- Experimental Manipulation of Affect --

Note continued: Judgments of Desirability and Probability -- Other Experiments -- Wishful Thinking in International Relations -- Perceptions of Danger: Vigilance or Defense? -- Avoidance of Perceptions of Extreme Probabilities -- Summary -- ch. Eleven Cognitive Dissonance and International Relations -- Cognitive Dissonance Theory -- Cognitive Dissonance and Inertia -- The Magnitude of Dissonance -- The Impact of Spending Resources -- Incentives and Compulsion -- Boomerang Effects -- Summary -- pt. IV In Lieu of Conclusions -- ch. Twelve Minimizing Misperception -- Making Assumptions and Predictions Explicit -- Devil's Advocates -- Conversions -- Identities and Missions -- Awareness of Common Misperceptions.